CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40608
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jun 2024, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) 
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 013 
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 188 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 188 / AP: 045

Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 field of view at June 08 01:48 UTC.  The plane-of-the- sky speed of the CME was around 1000 km/s.
The CME was associated with the M9.7 flare peaking 01:49 UTC on June 08, from NOAA AR 3697 (S18W53) near the west limb.
Analysis of this CME is ongoing but a glancing blow is possible in the beginning of June 10.

Lead Time: 50.95 hour(s)
Difference: 4.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-06-08T13:39Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy